How High or Low will Apple’s Stock Go? 2013 Q3 Preview

Hola Todos!

Today is a rare day – it only happens four times per year.  Apple rarely talks company performance but when they do, it always interesting to see if they’ll divulge anything new or interesting.  Sometime later today after the market has closed (EST), Apple will announce their 2013 3rd quarter results.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt does a bang up job gathering and summarizing both the institutional and the independent analysts’ projections.  In short, most feel we’ll see flat revenue  and profits  or perhaps the first year-to-year revenue drop in 10 years.  If that happens, I can’t see how the stock isn’t going to take a hit.

This story can all be summarized to one word: growth.  The iPod, iPhone, iPad and iTunes have fueled Apple for the past ten years and their growth is not the same.  I still expect iPad to be strong and even iTunes could be a Fortune 500 company.  I do not believe the smartphone market has peaked but I do believe it is not growing at the same pace it was in 2011.  Recently, I started listening to Horce Dideu of the Asymco.com blog and his Critical Path podcast and he consistently emphasizes that Tim Cook and team has to have a few new products up their sleeves to fuel the next wave of Apple’s growth.

I’ll be listening – and I wonder if Apple will fare better than Google and Microsoft did in the past week.

Best regards

Dr. Dan-o

 

Daniel M. Ladik, Ph.D.,

Associate Professor of Marketing

Stillman School of Business

Seton Hall University

 

 

 

 

Marissa Mayer’s 1 Year Anniversary at Yahoo: Job Well Done!

Hola Todos!

This week marks Marissa Mayer’s 1 Year Anniversary as the CEO of Yahoo.  Without question, I was a fan of Marissa when she started and I’m still a fan today.  The stock is up 70% since Marissa took the helm but even more impressive is Yahoo acquired 16 startups in this short time – all high-growth mobile or social businesses.  While most were a means to acquire top talent, others like Tumblr, Qwiki, and PlayerScale will keep their teams intact.

Most important – Yahoo is now a focused company with four main zones: core business (content, apps and search), social, gaming, and video (chat and conference calling).  On the downside for the year, Yahoo’s short-term growth has been flat.  Yesterday’s earning call reflected as much.  However, the balance sheet looks better, with profits up and debt down.  Plus, for the first time in what seems like forever, Yahoo’s page views (its main source of revenue) were up after years of declines.  Most of these gains can be attributed to refreshed versions (both desktop and mobile) of Yahoo Mail, weather, sports, news, and Flickr.

In sum, Yahoo had a solid year.  The slide has ended, the company is focused, top talent is flowing in and not out, and Yahoo is positioning itself towards a mobile future.  I look forward to what lies ahead in year 2.

Best regards

Dr. Dan-o

 

Daniel M. Ladik, Ph.D.,

 

Associate Professor of Marketing

Stillman School of Business

Seton Hall University